For the third year, we asked AEC firm leaders about their growth strategies, their market positions, and the forces shaping their decisions. What they told us in 2026 is different from any prior year — sharper, more specific, and, in some cases, more urgent. Here is a glimpse. 

The findings

75% of AEC firms report increased growth potential.

The strongest confidence signal in three years. But the story behind the number is more important than the number itself.

Data centers are the most validated growth sector — and they come with a critical qualifier.

57-point net positive outlook. $86 billion in projected spending. AND a pipeline risk most firms are not planning for.

AI has crossed from aspiration to execution.

Firms are naming specific operational deployments. The competitive gap is no longer about awareness, it is about who built a system and who is still evaluating tools. 

The federal environment is a named business variable.

$41.5 billion in recommended contract cancellations. Tariffs are adding 6-8% to project costs. Firms are not describing concern—they are describing direct pipeline impacts.

The missing middle is a structural condition once again in year three.

Same finding. Same talent gap. Same place in every firm. Three consecutive years means this is not a hiring problem.

M&A is reshaping the competitive landscape across all firm sizes.

One firm completed 11 acquisitions in 2025. PE-backed competitors are on shortlits. Firms not thinking about M&A have an incomplete picture of the market they are competing in. 

The WMBE and DBE contracting landscape changed overnight.

October 3, 2025. The implications for firm value, teaming, and competitive positioning are signifiant–and most firms are still catching up. 

AEC Firm Leaders. Spring 2026. The Flamingo Project.